Myanmar Military Control Weakening as Anti-Coup Forces Advance: Report

Myanmar’s military regime has faced significant losses in control over parts of the Southeast Asian country, especially along its borders, since anti-coup forces united to launch a renewed offensive at the end of October last year, according to a recent report by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M).

The SAC-M report, released on Thursday, highlighted the conflict’s trajectory since 2022 as one of “expanding resistance control versus corresponding military junta losses,” with a notable escalation since October 2023.

Since the initiation of Operation 1027 by ethnic armed groups and anti-coup fighters known as the People’s Defence Forces (PDF) last year, there have been substantial advances. These include taking military posts and border towns in the north and east along the borders with China and Thailand, as well as in the west where Myanmar borders Bangladesh and India.

The SAC-M noted that the military generals have lost complete authority over townships covering 86 percent of the country’s territory, home to 67 percent of Myanmar’s 55 million people. “Resistance to junta control remains strong, widespread, and deeply entrenched,” the report emphasized.

Following the coup in February 2021, where army chief Min Aung Hlaing seized power from civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, mass protests erupted. These protests evolved into an armed rebellion after the military responded with force. Since the coup, at least 5,161 civilians have been killed, and more than 20,500 are being held in jail, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

The SAC-M stated that the military can no longer be considered a legitimate (de jure) or a de facto government. “The military junta does not control enough of Myanmar’s territory to uphold the core duties of the state,” the report said.

In the 51 townships with international borders, the SAC-M found that just one, with a population of 7,000 in the foothills of the Himalayas, was under “stable junta control”. Thirty townships were assessed to have at least 90 percent control by anti-coup forces, including 14 where the military’s opponents had secured full control.

Crisis Group, a nonprofit tracking conflicts, shared SAC-M’s assessment. In its report released on Thursday, Crisis Group noted that ethnic armed groups have been the main beneficiaries of recent developments, securing the autonomous territories they have long sought through battlefield gains.

Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s senior adviser on Myanmar, warned of potential implications for a future federal democracy, a goal of many in the PDFs and the National Unity Government (NUG). He urged Myanmar’s neighbors and the international community to engage with the multiple groups vying for power while considering conflict risks and human rights concerns.

The SAC-M experts emphasized the need for increased humanitarian assistance to civilians affected by the conflict. The United Nations estimates that more than three million people have been displaced by the fighting. The SAC-M highlighted the urgent need to protect civilians from violence, most of which is perpetrated by the military. “The junta is by far the primary source of violence and instability and grave violations of international human rights and humanitarian law,” the report said. “It shows no willingness to meet the demands of the democratic revolution, only a commitment to further violence and suppression.”

The military has been accused of war crimes for continued air attacks on civilian villages and the deliberate burning of homes.